The Threat of War? Fact or Fiction

In this photo taken from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, Feb. 15, 2022, Russian armored vehicles are loaded onto railway platforms after the end of military drills in South Russia. In what could be another sign that the Kremlin would like to lower the temperature, Russia's Defense Ministry announced Tuesday that some units participating in military exercises would begin returning to their bases. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)

Editorial Staff - February 15, 2022

With a buildup of over 130,000 Russian troops surrounding Ukraine it is hard for any logically thinking body to believe that Russia is not planning to invade. But what do I know? Although I have studied my fair share of conflicts throughout history I surely amd not a military strategist.

However, Russia announced on Tuesday that some units that had been participating in the military exercises would begin returning to their bases, which did add a glimmer of hope that the Kremlin may in fact not be planning to invade Ukraine imminently. Or is this just a bluff or the calm before the pending storm? They of course did not give any details on where the troops were pulling back from, or how many would be withdrawing.

With world financial markets in decline and anticipation of the imminent invasion and the long-suffering ruble after weeks of escalation in Europe’s worst East-West standoff in decades. It came a day after Russia’s foreign minister indicated the country was ready to keep talking about the security grievances that led to the Ukraine crisis in the first place — a gesture that changed the tenor after weeks of tensions. It is however difficult to fathom the significance of the announcement,

Yet hours before the Russian Defense Ministry statement about the troops withdrawing, a U.S. defense official said that the Russian units were actually moving closer to the Ukrainian border – not away from it. With Western officials continuing to warn Tuesday that the Russian military could attack at any time, with some even suggesting that Wednesday could be a possible invasion day.

The fears of an invasion grew from the fact that Russia has massed more than 130,000 troops near Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly denied that it has any such plans, despite placing troops on Ukraine’s borders to the north, south and east and launching massive military drills nearby. All the while with U.S. and other NATO allies, moveing troops and military supplies toward Ukraine’s western flank, and promising more financial aid to the ex-Soviet nation.

Asked about the announcement, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stressed that Russia holds military drills “on its own territory and according to its own plans, they start, go on and end as planned.” The minister said such drills always adhered to a schedule — commenting further regardless of “who thinks what and who gets hysterical about it, who is deploying real informational terrorism.”

Ukraine’s leaders expressed skepticism about the pullback. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said, “Russia constantly makes various statements,” “That’s why we have the rule: We won’t believe when we hear, we’ll believe when we see. When we see troops pulling out, we’ll believe in de-escalation.”

European leaders have been scrambling to try to head off a new war on their continent, which could easily draw the world into what some have deemed as the possibility of World War III after several tense weeks that have left Europeans feeling caught between Russia and the U.S. This conflict has also further pushed up household energy prices because of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.